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Thursday, February 19, 2009

Fiscal Policy

Fiscal sustainability is a good starting point for the discussion of growth-oriented fiscal policy because unsustainable public finances inevitably lead to crises. This being said, the work program on growth-oriented fiscal policy goes beyond fiscal sustainability: it also includes issues of tax policy and development, composition of public expenditure, sub-national finance, and the role of fiscal policy in dealing with climate change.
Fiscal Policy: PRMED undertakes work on debt, fiscal policy and growth in Middle-Income Countries (MICs); tax policy and the efficiency of public expenditure policy; climate change, and the role of fiscal policy in managing volatile oil revenues.
Fiscal Sustainability, Risks and Vulnerabilities: PRMED has developed a comprehensive toolkit for fiscal sustainability in the context of uncertainty. The tool has its roots in traditional fiscal-sustainability analysis, but incorporates several new features that reflect modern developments. It allows for explicit analysis of the effects of uncertainty not just through scenario analysis, but also through full stochastic analysis allowing Value-at-Risk assessments. Given the uncertainty and risks posed by the current oil shock, the tool was extended to account for commodity price risks and possible risks stemming from declining production volumes.
Subnational Finance: With worldwide decentralization, the sustainability of sub-national finance is vital. The sub-national finance work covers: sustainability frameworks for analyzing how sub-national fiscal adjustment responds to reforms, shocks, and the interplay of national and sub-national policies; sub-national taxation and transfer systems; ex-ante legislative frameworks, including fiscal responsibility legislation regulating sub-national borrowing; and sub-national insolvency mechanisms for debt workout and restructuring.

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